WIN PROBABILITY in the Civil War – December 3/4

If you ever follow sporting events on ESPN, especially on their website, you’ll see something called “win probability”. It’s an evolving statistic that determines the percent probability that a team will win a certain game based on the score, the location, the importance of the game, injuries, the coaches, and everything else that could factor into the result of a contest. We’re going to try to do the same thing with the Civil War as we ask this essential question – “Did the Union win or did the Confederacy lose the Civil War?”

As part of your home learning experiences and then in class, you’re going to get information that details the status of the war at certain segments along the course of the conflict. Your task is to analyze the conditions of both sides of the war at that time and determine the probability of each side emerging victorious. Your probability scale is a number between 0 and 100 – 100 means that aside has no chance of losing, while 0 means the side has no chance of winning. An even match would be 50-50. Each time you post your probability score, you’ll are also going to support it with a very well written, well reasoned, and well supported statement. We will tabulate all the scores and give an overall probability in order to determine the reasons why the war ended or resulted the way that it did.

We will start at the beginning of the war with the firing of the shots at fort Sumter and the subsequent secession before southern states. Analyze the statistics on both sides and compare and contrast what each side has at the beginning of hostilities in 1861.

Looking for some info on the strategy of both sides on the even of the war? Check out Civil War Strategy for more info to add to your notes.


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